USF Baseball: Weekend Preview at UAB
Bulls with a bit of a hot streak, but a sneaky tough weekend looms for the squads as conference play begins.
USF Baseball is riding a four-game win streak after back-to-back weekend victories over Maryland and two midweek wins against FGCU. As they head into this weekend, the Bulls are in solid standing across multiple metrics, including a #61 ranking in the RPI. But they’ll face a tricky test this weekend, as their opponent, UAB, is quietly proving to be a formidable force.
USF Baseball: Right on Schedule
When Mitch Hannahs took the reins at USF, the question wasn’t “Can the Bulls compete nationally again?” It was more about “When will they?” So far this season, the Bulls have shown flashes of their potential—able to score in bunches while shutting down opponents with an aggressive, efficient defense.
USF has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation, currently ranked #23 in Strength of Schedule (SOS) according to WarrenNolan.com. Individually, they’ve got some key standouts: Friday starter Corey Braun, first baseman Sebastian Greico, and outfielder Ryan Pruitt, to name a few.
That said, consistency remains the key hurdle. The UCF series provided a perfect example. USF came out firing on Friday night with a run-rule victory over their rivals, but the Knights flipped the script on Saturday and Sunday, taking both games by run-rule to win the series.
This weekend, USF faces another challenge as they travel to Birmingham to take on a feisty UAB squad sitting at 14-7. The Blazers have already secured a ranked win over #22 Auburn, making them a serious threat.
UAB at a Glance
UAB’s 14-7 record is highlighted by their win over Auburn, but they’ve also notched weekend sweeps against North Alabama and South Alabama. The Blazers have beaten teams like Winthrop, Cornell, and Michigan State, but they’ve also dropped games to Troy, Alabama, and Middle Tennessee State in early-season tournaments.
Statistically, UAB ranks in the middle of the pack for the American Athletic Conference (AAC) in several key categories. Their team batting average of .279 sits third in the conference, while their team ERA of 4.71 is good for sixth. Defensively, UAB has a solid .975 fielding percentage, tied with USF.
Where the Blazers really shine, however, is in situational stats. They’ve struck out the least of any team in the AAC, and they’re tough to walk, ranking eighth in the conference in total walks issued. UAB pitchers have issued only six wild pitches all year, and the Blazers have stolen 83% of the bases they’ve attempted.
Weekend Starters
The Friday night battle will feature USF’s Corey Braun against UAB’s Cole Cheatham, a left-handed senior with a 2-2 record and a 6.00 ERA. Cheatham has allowed 25 hits, struck out 24 batters, and walked 10 in 27 innings this season.
On Saturday, USF will face UAB’s Colin Daniel, a right-handed junior who is 3-0 with a 2.68 ERA. Daniel leads the Blazers in strikeouts with 29, allowing just 10 runs on 22 hits and 9 walks through 26.2 innings.
Sunday’s matchup will feature UAB’s Chase Ingram, another right-handed junior with a 2-1 record and a 2.25 ERA. Ingram has allowed 30 hits but only seven earned runs, which suggests UAB’s defense has helped bail him out on several occasions.
Bats to Know
While UAB’s .279 team batting average isn’t particularly scary on paper, they’ve relied on timely hitting, accumulating 187 hits so far this season.
Junior third baseman Todd Clay has been their standout, leading the team with a .449 batting average, 31 hits, and a .536 slugging percentage. Senior center fielder Logan Braunschweiger is also a consistent presence at the plate and seldom strikes out. Other key hitters include catcher Nick Hollifield, right fielder Camden Hayslip, and shortstop Gavin Lewis Jr.
Prediction
Most advanced metrics sites predict a 2-1 series win for UAB, and I’m inclined to agree. Not because the Blazers are drastically better, but they’ve shown a level of consistency that USF has struggled to match at times. I think USF will come out strong on Friday night and pick up the win, but UAB’s steady play will likely see them take the series with victories on Saturday and Sunday. The Blazers are methodical and poised to surprise a few conference foes this season.