The Big USF vs. Tennessee NCAA Preview

Who: South Florida (23-10, 13-4 AAC) vs. Tennessee (22-9, 8-8 SEC)

Where: The Schottenstein Center, Columbus, Ohio

When: 8:00 p.m. (probably closer to 8:30 though because it’s 30 min after the early game)

Spread: Tennessee -17, Total 146.5

The Bullets:

• Pace will matter: Tennessee is second in the nation at 80.0 possession per game, good for second in all of Division I. The Bulls average 67.9 possessions per game (285th in D-1). Look for the Bulls to want to get more looks in the half court than they do against AAC teams, and they’ll need to avoid as many live ball turnovers as possible.
• Efficiency isn’t just a small apartment; it’s what will make the difference today. USF has averaged 95.7 points per 100 possessions while allowing 88.0 when defending. Tennessee is at 88.1 defensively, but they are 12th in the country at an NBA-like 108.9 per 100 times with the ball.
• The Bulls having 10 days off should help, as Tennessee will want to wear down their thinner opponent. UT has an eye-popping ten players averaging at least 14 minutes per game, with none going over the 25.2 of Samara Spencer (10.5 points, 4.7 assists per game). Look for the Vols to pressure 94 feet for long stretches.
• Traditionally USF under Fernandez in these spots is to play his starters as close to 40 minutes as possible, under the belief that the strength and conditioning program of his team can overcome when it’s needed in the biggest spots. But that might be tested today, especially if bigs such as Carla Brito find foul trouble early.
• Barring something unforeseen, the Bulls will start (1-5)  Mama Dembele, Vittoria Blasigh, Sammie Puisis, Brito, and L’or Mputu. How far down the bench Fernandez can trust will be a big factor. Can Fatou Diakite and Romi Levy give the Bulls positive minutes today? That could be the biggest factor if the game is close in the fourth quarter.
• This is USF’s 10th NCAA appearance, all under 25th-year head coach Jose Fernandez, and the ninth in the last 13 seasons for the Bulls.
• For the Vols, Kim Caldwell has only coached two seasons, but was considered a rising star as an assistant coach for years before her lone season at Marshall. She guided the Thundering Herd to the C-USA title in 2024, but as a #13 seed lost 92-49 to #4 seed Virginia Tech in the opening round of March Madness.

We will have live coverage in Discord with myself at the media table, and Vanessa Wenzl providing photography and video from C-Bus. Which is a place no Floridian ever needs to visit despite the lovely North Market food hall, whose coffee made this article possible.