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AAC Championship Preview: #3 USF vs #9 Rice

With a spot in the NCAA Tournament on the line

Author
Collin Sherwin
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Photo by Vanessa Wenzl

    Both teams are 3-2 in their last 5 games, but Rice is on an absolute heater right now. Between last year and this year in the AAC, they have yet to lose in Ft Worth. They defeated UAB 76-63 in the opening round, defeated #1 UTSA 62-58. and then throttled Temple 67-49 yesterday.

    Don't let their overall record or conference record fool you, this Rice team is immensely talented. They've been shooting otherworldly in the tournament, their effective FG% has been above 45% in all three games, and they have a very balanced offense between 2FG% and 3FG%. They aren't doing anything spectacularly different on defense either, they are just making all their shots (effective strategy imo).

    Malia Fisher and Aniah Alexis are leading the way for the Owls in the tournament, Alexis is averaging 15.6 PPG and Fisher is at 13 ppg. Dominique Ennis is one of their more consistent shooters this season as well, and Victoria Flores is their 3 pt specialist. They rebound well, share the ball exceptionally well, and get a good bit of points in the paint to balance some of their outside shooting. ESPN currently gives USF a 68.3% chance of winning, and WarrenNolan has it a bit closer at 64%, but don't take these numbers lightly, Rice was the underdog against UTSA and Temple and were able to control the game against both of those opponents.

    For USF to win, settle in defensively, don't get in foul trouble like you did against UNT, and Sammie has to get going from beyond 3. L'or/Carla should be able to rebound pretty well here, but this Rice team matches up well on the glass. Carla and L'or will be the x factors for USF tonight.

    In their previous match ups, USF was able to erase an 8 point deficit in the 3rd to control the 4th quarter back in December. In February, we had the triple OT thriller where USF was able to erase an 11 point deficit in the 3rd to win. You absolutely cannot get behind here in the 2nd half, Rice is very VERY familiar with USF's game plan and will not let them hit 3s back into the game like USF did their previous 2 match ups.

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