Tampa BAE Lightning Game 11 Preview: 12 in 10
A recap of where we've been & restart to where we go
The Tampa Bay Lightning are back on the ice inside Benchmark International Arena tonight at 7 p.m. to take on the Dallas Stars.
The Stars come into Tampa on a three game winning streak against the Hurricanes, Predators, & Capitals while Tampa is on their own three game winning streak against Ducks, Golden Knights, & Predators.
Moneypuck has this game at nearly a 50-50 toss up with a slight edge to the Lightning being the home team and they’re not far off in my opinion.
The Lightning have a better goals%, expected goals%, and have scored more goals than Dallas at 5-on-5 play, however, their power play couldn’t be more misaligned. The Stars are top three in the league around 31%, but the Bolts are hovering in the bottom at 14%.
While the Lightning power play has gone ice cold, the penalty kill remains a strength at roughly 88%. Defensively, the Stars are allowing 1.99 goals a game with the Bolts at 2.56. I think the Lightning defense is getting better with the addition of D’Astous & Moser playing like a generational defense man, but the key is going to be getting out ahead of the Stars first.
This game has the potential to be a defensive, goal tending slug fest. It’ll be hard match up for both teams. I think whoever scores first will, ultimately, end up winning.
That’s a look at what’s ahead. Let’s talk briefly about where we’ve been. Lightning Radio play-by-play announcer Dave Mishkin came up with a formula that has pretty much always worked out for playoff standings. A team that scores twelve points in every ten game segment will make the playoffs.
During their first ten games, the Lightning managed to get ten points putting them two off pace. Two points may not seem like a lot, but you have to keep in mind the other teams ahead of you like Detroit & Montreal who both got fourteen (!!) in ten games. It’s not just about where you are, it’s about having to leap frog the people up ahead of you.
The Lightning seem like they’re starting to figure out. Dallas should be a good measuring stick game to see where they really stand against a strong team.
It’s Kucherov’s 1,000 point celebration & Halloween Night inside Benchmark tonight. Join the game thread and enjoy some great hockey. Go Bolts!