Tampa BAE Lightning '25-26 Season Preview

Seems like just yesterday we were recapping a pummeling from the Panthers that left the Bolts beaten, injured, and just ready for the nightmare from Sunrise to be over.

With the new season upon us, let’s take a moment to recap the preseason games in which the Lightning went 5-1 and ended with a final game against the Panthers that left the Bolts beaten, injured, and just ready for the nightmare from Sunrise to be over…wait. Oh my.

In all seriousness, I don’t put too much stock in the preseason. Teams play weird line ups, Vasy barely played at all (more on that in a moment), and the final Panthers-Bolts game was a complete farce on both sides that resulted in the NHL dropping the hammer on one team.

The Lightning will open their season tonight at home against the Ottawa Senators. Unlike last year which saw the Bolts go on the road and then have to reschedule due to Hurricane Milton, we get a home divisional game right off the rip.

Since this is the first regular season game for both teams, there isn’t much useful data to pick apart yet. Instead, let’s focus on my mostly terrible predictions from the end of last year.

Coaching Clean Out

• I thought the Lightning would make some moves with regard to their coaching staff and they did—kinda. Jeff Blashill is gone, but not because he was fired. He was promoted to Head Coach of the Chicago Blackhawks. In his place comes Dan Hintoe. Hintoe’s been around a bunch of stops inside the AHL, NHL, and in developmental hockey. Hintoe’s last position was with the Colorado Eagles in the AHL as an Associate Head Coach. His team finished 2nd in the Pacific Division before getting knocked out in the first round in the Calder Cup Playoffs.I think Blashill had to go either way, but I’m glad he got the chance to leave on his own because I’m not sure that Cooper would have made that call—which is a problem to be discussed later—but let’s be optimistic that Hintoe can help the team get back on track defensively.

A Major Player Traded

• I thought a major player would be traded. Like household name. That didn’t really happen. But Isaac Howard, who was arguably the Bolts’ best prospect, was traded to Edmonton. I’ve got a lot of thoughts about how this all went down and who is culpable, but remember kids “if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all”. Moving on.

The Roster Would Be Very Different

• I was pretty spot on here. Out is Atkinson, Perbix, Glendening. Welcome in new comers Curtis Douglas, Pontus Holmberg, Niko Huuhtanen, & Pheonix Copley. Also, congrats to Cuse Call Ups Jack Finley & Max Crozier. I am most excited to see Finley, Crozier, & Douglas. I think Finley and Crozier will be great adds to this team and they have worked their tails off getting here.
• Douglas is going to be hilarious because he’s built like a defensive end and was brought on solely to fight Panthers. Copley’s signing makes me a little nervous because if he is playing that means very likely Vasy is not well and needs extended time off to shift the burden to Jojo. Vasy is the likely starter tonight. I imagine we are going to learn about him very quickly.

JBB Would Not Get Fired

• He didn’t. Nailed it.

That’s all fine and dandy, but what about this year? What can we expect from the Lightning? Here are some predictions and some, slightly, hot takes.

If Vasy is healthy, the Lightning will win the Atlantic Division.

• This seems like a BIG if given the coy nature Coach Cooper has spoken about Vasy with. He’s been very non-committal. And I know some will say, “That’s just Coop”, but this feels different. I can’t pinpoint it, but I don’t think he’s 100% good to go. Plus, the Panthers will be down two major players for an extended period of time (potentially the entire season with Barkov) and the Maple Leafs are retooling with the loss of Mitch Marner. Add in a more powerful scoring group of forwards and a defense that I think gets better there is really just one piece of the pie that needs to stay solid to make it happen: goal tending. If he’s good, I think they got this.

The defense will be markedly improve and Emil Lilleberg will not see the ice much.

• As much as Cooper likes his guys, it was plain to see how Lilleberg brought down whoever was paired up with him. Perbix is gone. Raddysh is probably going to stick at top with Hedman. Moser is suspended for a bit, but when he’s back I expect the 3rd pairing to be Moser-Crozier and I think that’s just fine. It will feel like back when Jan Rutta was with Heddy and Sergachev turned into a monster 3rd pairing D-Man for the Lightning.

The Lightning Power Play will not be effective against Atlantic Playoff Teams.

• The Lightning power play runs through Kucherov. Everyone within a million miles of the NHL knows that. To that extent, the teams we will see the most and that have the caliber of player to make the playoffs will not be phased by it. They have figured it out and will neuter the power play. I just don’t think the coaching staff knows what else to do other than “feed your top 5 player of all time”. And honestly, that’s a pretty good strategy against most opponents! But when you see each other this much it eventually won’t work and I think we’re at that point.

That’s all I’ve got for now. I can’t wait to go through this season with you all. It’s going to be a fun one. GO BOLTS!