Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedToo Many Mistakes
Another First Round Exit
Big Changes Coming?

The Tampa Bay Lightning finished their season with a thud losing to the Panthers on home ice in five Games.

The Panthers were the flat out better team. It wasn’t particularly close. I always thought the first or second round was going to be this team’s ceiling, but this was a thumping.

So now, for the third year in a row, the Bolts exit in the 1st round. Rather than recap the game, I’m going to rattle off some thoughts on the season as a whole and what I think may be on the horizon for changes.

Season Thoughts

• The Lightning record was pretty fraudulent.

The Lightning finished 47-27-8 earning 2nd place in the Atlantic. Look deeper though and find they went 21-18-2 against playoff teams. That’s a shade above .500. Not great. It gets even worse when you look at Atlantic Playoff Teams. When counting games against the Leafs, Panthers, Canadiens, & Senators the Bolts went 5-9-1. 2nd place means dookie when you’re .333 against the teams you’re most likely to face. Not a single winning record to be found amongst any of those teams. And, sure, you went .500 against the Panthers. That last game was against a bunch of their AHLers and Vitek Vanecek in net who is just awful. A fully healthy Panthers squad took the Bolts to the cleaners.

But hey, beating up on Metro & Western Teams sure is fun!

• Victor Hedman may not be a good Captain.

Listen, I get it’s only the first year. I also get that Captain isn’t necessarily the most important thing, but it’s not nothing. Hedman, by all accounts, seems like a super nice guy—genuinely one of the best. He also looks like a defense man that absolutely knows his position and how to do it well. But is this a guy that’s going to galvanize a locker room and drag his team into the fight? Before you answer, let’s look at this video of Connor McDavid in the Cup Finals last year. Remember, how close the Oilers came to reversing the Panthers? I think his emotional leadership definitely played into that. Click this link and see what I mean. Lock In

Do you think that’s the kind of personality that Hedman has? I’ve never been anywhere close to that locker room. I couldn’t tell you with any level of certainty. But I just don’t see it. I can definitely see Hagel doing it, but not Hedman.

• This team was not built to win anything meaningful.

It seems super clear now looking at it after being pushed out of the playoffs, but this team just isn’t that good; especially on offense. The Lightning had six really strong forwards during the regular season. Guentzel, Point, Kuch, Hagel, Cirelli, & Paul all finished with over 20 goals. That’s pretty cool. After that, the list gets sad. Hedman is next up with 15 goals, Chaffee at 12, and no one else breaks double digits after that. Without any major kind of scoring threat outside of those guys, it gets really easy to shut down the rest of the team. All an opponent had to do was maul the top line, get relatively strong defense against the 2nd, and then there’s really no more scoring threat. The good part of the Cup Teams was their ability to defend, but also their ability to roll out three lines of scoring. The depth scoring simply didn’t exist on this team.

Defensively, I thought the Lightning improved this season. I think bringing back McDonagh was a great choice. I also think trading Sergachev for Moser & Geekie was a brave, but smart decision. However, the third pairing for the Lightning was utterly terrible at times throughout the season. Between poor decision making, untimely penalties, and a general lack of unpreparedness they (Raddysh, Perbix, Lilleberg) proved to be a group that just isn’t ready to be on their own yet.

Potential Big Changes

I preface this by saying: I am not an insider. I’m barely a qualified writer. Many of you probably know more about hockey than me. With that, here are my takes for what changes I think needs to happen.

• Coaching Clean Out

I don’t think Jon Cooper should be fired (yet). I do think most of his assistants need to be shown the door. I’d keep the video coaches and that’s about it. Halpern? See ya, buddy. Hope you get a head coaching job. Zettler? Hey man, it was a good run. Jean? You’re going to be great in Montreal. Blashill? Enjoy that rocket ride to the Kunlun Red Star, chief.

Jon Cooper has one year left on his contract. I think JBB gives him this year before making any sudden movements. After 25-26, it becomes a crap shoot because who even knows if Coop still wants to be here. There’s that wild internet rumor about Utah. Do I think he’s interested in that? Eh, probably not. But a chance to go home to Canada? That might be enough.

Let’s say that there is mutual interest in both parties seeking something new. Maybe it’s just that time. Who do you go get? Torts? Stop living in the past, man. Enough of that. Sullivan? I don’t think he’d develop the young guys well. Quinville? I’ve marked you for death. Your time is coming.

If you go nuclear on the coaching staff, there’s only one answer for the Head Coach: David Carle from The University of Denver. If you’re going to blow it up, fine. However, you cannot go from Cooper to a retread. If you’re going to do it, go big. Focus on your young talent and swing for the fences.

• A major player is going to be traded and it might be Nikita Kucherov.

There are three players on the Tampa Bay Lightning that make $9.5 million/year. Their names are Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, & Andrei Vasilevskiy. Point has a full no move clause in his contract. He is not going anywhere. Kucherov & Vasy only have Modified No Trade Clauses. If you’re not familiar, the M-NTC means that the player submits a list of teams, for Kuch & Vasy the number is ten each, that they cannot be traded without their permission. That leaves 22 other teams where they can be dealt and there’s nothing stopping JBB from doing it.

The salary cap is going up to $95.5 million. The Bolts, if they ship no one out, will get $8.2 million to play with to sign two-to-three forwards, a defenseman, and a backup goalie. Imagine that number going up to nearly $18 million by moving just one player—suddenly the caliber of players to fill those holes goes up. Move both? Now, you’ve got a fortune.

JBB has shown he’s not afraid to make big, unpopular, unexpected moves if he thinks it will make the team better (see Sergachev, Mikhail & Stamkos, Steven). Kucherov has been a ghost for the last three playoffs, he’s got visible attitude problems when things don’t go right, he only has two years left before he’s an Unrestricted Free Agent at the age of 34. If we’re canning Halpern because of his inability to coach up a successful power play for the post season, maybe it’s time to throw the baby out with the bathwater and get a big haul for the guy who runs it on the ice. Imagine the price tag to get the rights to Isaac Howard and Nikita Kucherov on your roster. Plus, you also have to think about the attitude and pure quit that Kuch shows sometimes—does he want to still be here?

And, yes, I get it. He’s the back-to-back Hart Trophy Winner. Jonathan Huberdeau was also a consistent 20-30 goal scorer, franchise icon, and had 115 points the year before he was traded to Calgary. Think the Panthers regret that trade?

Or let’s say you’re thinking about cutting bait on an aging Vasy. Think about the Carolina Hurricanes or the Edmonton Oilers and their nightmare goaltending getting the chance to run Vasy out there for the final two-to-three years of his contract. Could you fathom the price they’d be willing to pay to finally solve their abyss in net with a goalie that’s been there and is capable of doing it when he’s given a strong defense in front of him?

Either of these moves would be wildly unpopular in Tampa. So was letting Stamkos walk and it sure seems like that was the right move. At some point, Tampa is going to need to put some pieces back into the cupboard and start to strip this operation down to its bare bones. Maybe the first move in that process is due now.

• The roster is going to look pretty different, regardless.

Gourde, Atkinson, Glendening, Goncalves, Perbix, and Johansson all need new contracts. I expect everyone except Goncalves to be gone from this team. I don’t think anyone can make a solid case for brining any of these guys back. I’ll miss Luke Glendening, though. That guy was solid as hell.

It’s time to focus on the youth. We don’t need anymore aging forwards on contract. We need a solid Top 3 lines with scoring threats across each one. Let the “grit” come in the form of a shut down defense. I want to see three lines that can put pucks in the net. Make the teams you’re playing against work for it if they want to stop you.

• JBB will not be getting fired any time soon.

With what I think should be a renewed focus on young, fast players it’s a real shame to see how JBB handled Isaac Howard. I’m not sure there’s anything that can be done to salvage that relationship. Most GMs would be under real pressure for boofing like that, but Vinik stepping aside has probably saved JBB’s job for the next 2 or 3 years barring an absolutely cataclysmic meltdown. New owners are likely to be hesitant to make a front office change until they fully understand what they’re doing. The sale is going to buy him more time, for better or worse.

I expect a big, busy off season for this team. If not, then buckle up for more of the same results. Whenever that big move happens, we’ll be here to break it down.

Until then, my friends. Go Bolts.