March Madness Preview: USF vs. Louisville
The South Florida Bulls will take on the Louisville Cardinals in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon.
Matchup History
It will be USF’s fourth NCAA Tournament appearance in program history. The Bulls are 2-3 all-time in March Madness.
The team they are facing is no stranger to the Big Dance. The Cardinals have 45 NCAA Tournament appearances, the sixth-most of any program. Louisville has more national championships than USF has NCAA Tournament wins.
Historically, these teams aren’t strangers. They have been conference rivals in four different conferences (Metro, Conference USA, Big East and American [Athletic] Conference). Louisville has a 29-4 all-time record against the Bulls.
Setting the Scene
The history of the matchup won’t matter Thursday afternoon.
Louisville hasn’t won a game in the Big Dance since beating Jacksonville State in 2017. Cardinals head coach Pat Kelsey is 0-5 in the NCAA Tournament in his 14 years as a head coach.
This will be USF head coach Bryan Hodgson’s first NCAA Tournament game as a head coach.
The Bulls come into the game winners of 11 in a row, the fourth-longest active streak in the country and the second-longest in program history. Six of USF’s last seven wins have come by 15 points or more.
Louisville enters the game 6-4 in its last 10 games.
Louisville freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. will not play Thursday. He has missed the Cardinals’ last four games and 12 total this season due to a back injury. Brown Jr. is second on the team, averaging 18.2 points per game. The Cardinals are 7-5 in games Brown Jr. has missed this season.
Louisville guard Ryan Conwell was an All-ACC second-team selection and leads the Cardinals in scoring at 18.7 points per game. Conwell played for USF in the 2022-23 season, when the Bulls finished 14-18.
Cardinals senior forward Kasean Pryor also played for USF. He was on the 2023-24 team.
USF has senior forward Izaiyah Nelson, who is the first player to win American Conference Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year in the same season. Nelson is averaging 15.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and three stocks (steals plus blocks) per game this season.
Junior guard Wes Enis has scored 20 or more points in seven of his last 10 games. He leads the Bulls, averaging 16.5 points per game this season.
The Bulls have the highest-scoring team in program history and are averaging 87.7 points per game this season, which led the American Conference and ranked eighth in the country.
Louisville led the ACC in scoring, averaging 84.8 points per game. The Cardinals rank inside the top 25 in the country in offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, according to KenPom.
Key Matchups in the Game
Both teams play a high-speed style of basketball. Each ranks inside the top 65 in the country in adjusted tempo. USF ranks 12th, boasting one of the fastest attacks in Division I.
The Cardinals’ offense is built on the 3-point shot. Louisville takes 52.8% of its field goal attempts from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest rate in the country. The Bulls allow opponents to shoot 34.6% from 3-point range this season, which ranks 200th in the country.
The Bulls had the best defensive efficiency in American Conference play. USF has held its opponents under 75 points in seven of its last 10 games.
USF grabs an offensive rebound on 38.4% of its misses this season, the sixth-best rate in the country. The Cardinals allow opponents to grab offensive rebounds 26.9% of the time. The war inside when the Bulls miss a shot will be crucial.
The Bulls rely heavily on senior guard Joseph Pinion from beyond the arc. USF is 11-2 in games where Pinion makes four 3-pointers or more. The Bulls rank 213th overall in 3-point shooting this season.
Both teams rank inside the top 50 in the percentage of their field goals that come off assists. The Bulls led the American Conference in assists per game. But with Brown Jr. not active, no Louisville player averages more than 2.6 assists per game.
A key matchup will come between Enis and Conwell, the teams’ leading scorers. Enis shut down prolific guards in the American tournament last week, holding Dezayne Mingo and Kenyon Giles to a combined 13 points in two games. Conwell has been the focal point of the Cardinals’ offense with Brown Jr. out. He has attempted 14 or more field goals in Louisville’s last four games without Brown Jr and has scored 15 or more points in his last seven games..
Both teams rely heavily on their starters. USF ranks 195th in bench points per game, and Louisville ranks 219th.
With the teams playing such similar styles, it will come down to execution and endurance Thursday afternoon in a win-or-go-home game.
Prediction
USF is the hotter and healthier team. I think the Bulls win this one because of that. Izaiyah Nelson will pose a problem for Louisville’s frontcourt, and Wes Enis will be able to limit the Cardinals’ main source of offense in Ryan Conwell. The Bulls buzzsaw will make it to Saturday!