Is Tampa Bay stuck in a Todd Bowles purgatory?
The Bucs have lost four of their last five games. Another mid-season skid under the leadership of Todd Bowles.
On Oct. 12, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the San Francisco 49ers 30-19. The Bucs were 5-1 and owned the best record in the NFC.
What a difference a month can make.
Tampa Bay was trounced 34-7 by the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night, its third straight loss and fourth in the last five games. It was the Bucs’ largest defeat since a 35-7 loss to San Francisco in 2022.
The Bucs NFC South lead has been trimmed to just half a game.
“Everything we need to do is right in front of us, but we have a lot of work to do,” head coach Todd Bowles said.
Despite the skid, Pro Football Network gives the Bucs a 63.6% chance to make the playoffs, but this slump mirrors a familiar pattern during Bowles’ tenure.
Tampa Bay has posted at least one three-game losing streak in each of Bowles’ four seasons as head coach. All have occurred in the middle of the season.
“It’s in the locker room with our players and coaches,” Bowles said. “We’re our problem and also our solution.”
Bowles’ run in Tampa Bay has felt like a loop. In 2022, the Bucs started 3-5 and finished 8-9. In 2023, they fell to 4-7 before rallying to 9-8. In 2024, a 4-6 start ended in a 10-7 finish. All three seasons ended with NFC South titles and home playoff games; no other NFC South team has posted a winning record during that stretch.
The Bucs are in the midst of a franchise-record five-year playoff streak. Before the 2020 Super Bowl run, Tampa Bay went 13 years without a postseason appearance.
Bowles has been central to the turnaround. He served as defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021 before taking over as head coach in 2022.
The circumstances he inherited were far from ideal. Bruce Arians retired in March, less than a month before the draft. Tom Brady retired in February, then unretired 40 days later and missed extensive practice time. Chris Godwin missed the entire 2022 season. Even so, Bowles guided Tampa Bay to the playoffs.
The next offseason brought sweeping change. Brady retired again—this time permanently—and general manager Jason Licht reshaped the roster. Leonard Fournette, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Cameron Brate, Donovan Smith and Mike Edwards all departed. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich was fired and replaced by Dave Canales, and the Bucs brought in former No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield to compete for the starting job. Bowles improved the team’s record by a game and earned his first postseason win with a 32-9 rout of Philadelphia in the Wild-card Round.
After the season, Canales left to become the Panthers’ head coach. Bowles hired Liam Coen to run the offense, and the Bucs’ core began to solidify. Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Evans all signed extensions. Tampa Bay improved by another win and captured the NFC South again before losing in the first round to Washington. Coen departed for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ head-coaching job, and Bowles promoted pass-game coordinator Josh Grizzard.
This season, Bowles appeared poised for a breakthrough. Tampa Bay opened 5-1—its best start since 2021 and only the sixth 5-1 start in franchise history.
Then the familiar midseason slide returned.
The defense has again been at the center of the collapse. The Bucs have allowed 106 total points in their last three games. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 286.7 passing yards with eight touchdowns over that stretch.
The Bucs allowed 31.3 points per game during their four-game losing streak last season, 24.8 points per game in their four-game skid in 2023, and 24.7 points per game in a three-game slide in 2022.
Tampa Bay is allowing 25.8 points per game, ranking 25th in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 60.7% of their passes and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.
Injuries, another recurring theme, have compounded the problem. The Bucs had at least 35 players appear on the injury report in each of Bowles’ first three seasons. This year, running back Bucky Irving; receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin; linemen Ben Bredeson, Tristan Wirfs and Cody Mauch; cornerback Jamel Dean; defensive lineman Calijah Kancey; and linebacker Haason Reddick have all missed multiple games. All were projected starters.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield joined the list Sunday, missing the entire second half with a shoulder injury. An MRI showed no structural damage, meaning he likely will not miss extended time.
Even amid the spiral, Tampa Bay is positioned for another late-season push. The Bucs have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league.
They may well rally to win the NFC South again. But the looming question is whether the cycle will ever break under Bowles.
From 1999 to 2001, Tony Dungy led Tampa Bay to three straight playoff appearances before the Bucs fired him following consecutive Wild-card losses. A year later, under Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay won its first Super Bowl.
It was a bold gamble that paid off. The Glazer family owned the team then and still owns it now.
Will they take a similar risk with Bowles?
The final six games—and the postseason, if Tampa Bay gets there—will be critical in determining that answer.